By Eamon Leung
History has a way of repeating itself—sometimes with uncanny precision. Looking back at The Tribune's archives from 2016, the echoes of that election can be felt today. Has Trump’s return to presidency brought back the same promises, or has he adapted to the times?
An image of The Tribune's 9th Issue—the cover headline focused on the U.S. presidential race.
Eight years on, Trump’s promises still remain somewhat familiar. His core policies of major government restructuring, tax reforms, and protectionist trade and immigration measures persist strongly throughout his campaign.
Government Cuts:
In 2016, Trump planned to abolish the Department of Education (ED), advocating for localised education governance, and to cut the Environmental Protection Agency in its entirety. This aligned with his dismissive stance on progressive education and climate issues, of which he cited climate change as a “concept invented by the Chinese” to harm U.S. manufacturing in a controversial tweet.¹
Although he did not manage to realise such goals in his first term, he now pledges once again to "eliminate” the federal ED, shifting the responsibility to the state level. The ED’s whopping $68bn² funding may now be redistributed to each state, allowing them to curate their education. The plan sounds like a recipe for 50 different versions of the American future, with some states sending kids to Ivy Leagues, and others stuck with AP Lunch and AP Recess. Moreover, states would not have complete freedom over their education policies, as Trump has vowed to cut funding for schools that do not align with the GOP’s views on diversity and inclusion.
Trump also once again promises to withdraw from the Paris Climate Accords, once again defying his democratic predecessors. Finally, his proposed "drill, baby, drill" bill to extend tax breaks to oil, gas, and coal producers solidifies his stance towards the climate.³
Tax Reforms:
Trump's approach to tax reform remains consistent, continuing to favour the interests of the ultra-wealthy. While his 2016 proposal to reduce income tax brackets from seven to four never materialised, his Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) largely aligned with his campaign promises—though its effectiveness in bringing "revenue neutrality"† remains up for debate.⁴ The TCJA had cut taxes like he promised, but the cuts were disproportionately skewed towards higher-income individuals and corporations.
Now, Trump’s plan is to extend the TCJA while introducing new tax exemptions, reinforcing his commitment to the same fiscal ideologies.⁴ And it is easy to see why—tax cuts strike a chord with voters across the political spectrum, making it a powerful tool for capturing undecided voters. No doubt, the influence of Elon Musk and other wealthy backers has also played a role in this fiscal focus.
Trade Policy:
Trump’s distinctly protectionist stance toward trade was characterised by his promises to withdraw the U.S. from NAFTA and the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Anecdotes of his isolationist ideology have been characterised by remarks such as labelling China as a currency manipulator that needed to be stopped, so it came as no surprise that he imposed tough tariffs on a large swathe of countries, such as Mexico and China. Mission accomplished? Not quite. As businesses faced steeper costs in China, they eagerly hunted for new suppliers in the neighbouring region, and rather ironically, expanded the deficit Trump set out to tame.⁵ The deficit did not disappear—it packed its bags and moved.
This election season, tariffs are back on the table. Despite the U.S.'s heavy reliance on imports, there seems to be unwavering support among Republican voters for imposing tariffs. Many of them see tariffs as a way to punish foreign nations while protecting what they believe is rightfully American. Reclaiming control means paying a premium—but hey, what’s a few extra dollars for freedom? For many, tariffs are less about financial impact and more about “making America great again.” Globally, though, these tariffs will set off a ripple effect, particularly for small trade businesses in the UK which rely heavily on exports to the U.S.⁶
Immigration and Border Stringencies:
One of Trump’s key campaign promises in 2016 was to deport up to 3 million illegal immigrants. However, the logistical and financial obstacles to such a task were significant, leaving this goal largely unmet. During the 2017 fiscal year, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) arrests did in fact increase by 30% as part of Trump's executive order, but overall ICE arrests totaled lower than under Obama's administration.⁷
Looking ahead, Trump is now claiming to carry out the “largest domestic deportation operation in American history,” claiming that there is no limit to the resources needed to deport over 11 million undocumented immigrants.⁸ The sweeping deportation promise plays on many Americans’ deep-seated protectionist views, capitalising on the fear that the mass influx of foreigners are taking American jobs, and, I guess, eating the dogs in Springfield. Trump’s stance as the guardian of the gates has become a powerful symbol for those who view foreign influence with growing suspicion. Whether his dramatic plan will play out or remain campaign theatrics, only time will tell. But in the meantime, for a country that prides itself on being a global beacon of opportunity, the irony of gatekeeping those who fuel its prosperity is hard to miss. The American dream is thus exactly a dream – an illusory fantasy.
International Relations
Geopolitical tension today is undoubtedly higher than during Trump’s previous term. Trump has taken advantage of this shift by making one of his boldest promises yet: to decisively end the war between Ukraine and Russia. He claims he will be able to achieve peace "within 24 hours" through negotiations and bring the years-long conflict to a swift close even before being sworn in as president next January.³ Shocking as it may seem, J.D. Vance has already hinted at an agreement involving Ukraine’s territorial concession, with the U.S. threatening to pull out aid otherwise.⁹ Happy days for the many Americans fed up with footing the bill, but will this dangerously spiral into a repeat of the 1938 Munich Agreement?
Trump’s bold promises, while often exaggerated, seem to serve a larger purpose: appealing to the disillusioned by presenting himself as someone who is quick, decisive, and delivers results, regardless of whether those results may bring harm in the future.
Image credit: Unsplash @Natilyn_H
An excerpt from The Tribune's 10th Issue, released in December 2016, written by Yash Hamlai, our former Chief Political Correspondent.
In an almost uncanny repetition, Trump has claimed presidency once more, this time with an ambitious promise to end an entire war. Not only did his other pledges greatly echo those of the previous election, the leadup to Election Day as well as the day itself greatly reminded us of the past. In lieu of surveys and mainstream media reports strongly favouring his democratic-partied opponent, Trump managed to secure the victory. He continues to resonate with blue-collar Americans, while recently gaining significant traction with Gen-Z Republican voters: around 7% of women and 15% of men from this generation "turned red" compared to the 2020 election.¹⁰ This shift highlights how Trump’s controversial but vocal policies in addressing the U.S.'s economic issues, is resonating with the anxieties of younger voters. Voters additionally felt that Trump's appearances on several talk shows and podcasts portrayed a truer picture of the candidate, making the candidate and his campaign more relatable and in-touch with the Gen-Z audience, who felt mainstream media controlled the election. Kamala Harris tried similar outreach strategies, appearing on Call Her Daddy and releasing memes on Kamala HQ. But where Trump leaned into unscripted, marathon sessions—like his three-hour, unfiltered talk on Joe Rogan’s show—Harris’s approach seemed more carefully curated, lacking the rawness which Gen Z audiences craved.
The question remains: will Trump’s return to office yield different results, or will it be a continuation of past promises and policies? His commitment to the same pillars—tax reform, immigration control, and trade protectionism—suggests a familiar path, yet the challenges he now faces are markedly different. In an era defined by increased geopolitical conflict and economic uncertainty, Trump’s bold pledges have captured the attention of both long-time supporters and a newly swayed generation of Gen-Z voters.
Footnote
† - A revenue neutral bill is one where its costs are, in the long term, fully offset.
References
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Ed.gov. (2024). About the U.S. Department of Education | aaec. [online] Available at: https://aaec.ed.gov/about-the-us-department-of-education.
McDermott, J. and Daly, M. (2024). In new term, Trump to target climate measures that are making the most difference. [online] AP News. Available at: https://apnews.com/article/trump-election-climate-pollution-oil-gas-clean-energy-f6ad39e23613396a7536fb1dc25fca62.
Colvin, J. (2023). Trump’s plans if he returns to the White House include deportation raids, tariffs and mass firings. [online] AP News. Available at: https://apnews.com/article/trump-policies-agenda-election-2024-second-term-d656d8f08629a8da14a65c4075545e0f.
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Inge, S. (2024). Trump tariffs threaten billions in British exports. [online] POLITICO. Available at: https://www.politico.eu/article/trump-tariffs-threaten-billions-in-british-exports/ [Accessed 8 Nov. 2024].
Gramlich, J. (2020). How border apprehensions, ICE arrests and deportations have changed under Trump. [online] Pew Research Center. Available at: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2020/03/02/how-border-apprehensions-ice-arrests-and-deportations-have-changed-under-trump/.
Bennett, B. and Nik Popli (2024). What a Donald Trump Win Would Mean For Immigration. [online] TIME. Available at: https://time.com/7171654/donald-trump-immigration-plan-2024/.
Kakissis, J. (2024). What will Trump’s presidency mean for Russia’s war on Ukraine? [online] NPR. Available at: https://www.npr.org/2024/11/07/nx-s1-5181985/2024-election-trump-russia-ukraine-war.
Potas, D. (2024). Opinion: Turns out Gen Z wasn’t completely sold on Harris. Men flocked to Trump. [online] USA TODAY. Available at: https://eu.usatoday.com/story/opinion/columnist/2024/11/07/trump-win-men-gen-z-voted/76095027007/ [Accessed 8 Nov. 2024].
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